Crisis in the Sahel: The Interconnected Failures Driving Sahel’s Humanitarian Emergency

This briefing explores the Sahel’s security paradox, revealing how endemic corruption, climate stress, and a booming population transformed Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger into the epicentre of global terrorism. This article was written by Sveva Anna Di Capua and edited by Frankie Finch.

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Introduction

Stretching across Africa as a fragile barrier between the Sahara and the fertile south, the Sahel region is home to the world’s fastest-growing humanitarian crisis, centred on the security and governance breakdown in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These three states are consistently identified as the ‘vulnerable triangle’ bearing the crisis’s most intense pressure.

The Origins of the Crisis

The roots of this disorder are deep, as a permissive environment for instability has been forged in the area by the synergy of several destructive forces. Crucially, the crisis stems from the cumulative overflow of interconnected and long-standing regional problems that together created unprecedented destabilisation. These include governance failures, drug trafficking, Libyan conflict spillover, and intensifying climate-related stresses. Collectively, such factors have created a security vacuum, transforming the Sahelian identity from a geographic belt into a cauldron of human suffering.

The cycle of bad governance has become contagious, directly fuelling turmoil across the key countries. The genesis of this political collapse are administrative failures, as corrupt civilian governments lost territorial control and faced accusations of embezzling defence funds, leading to a widespread perception of total state ineffectiveness. This corruption, prevalent even within the security apparatus, offered armed forces a pretext to initiate a coup. Institutional failure in northern Mali, driven by officials profiting from drug trafficking, abandons under-equipped soldiers. This prioritisation of elite wealth over national security allows the crisis to metastasise rapidly.

In Mali, the security crisis ignited with the 2012 military coup, causing a rapid dissolution of state authority in the north. This void allowed jihadist and separatist factions to occupy historical and population centres, including Gao, Timbuktu, and Kidal. The occupation inflicted profound trauma upon the local populace, characterised by the imposition of harsh Sharia interpretations, the destruction of priceless cultural heritage (ancient tombs and manuscripts), and mass displacement. The 2013 French-led Operation Serval expelled jihadists from urban centres but failed to secure a political solution. Consequently, extremist groups adapted by moving into rural areas, expanding south and east, and effectively destabilising neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, turning the collapse into a regional catastrophe.

Foreign Intervention and its Troubling Consequences

Adding to this complex dynamic, external involvement itself created a damaging paradox. US-backed counterterrorism efforts, including tactical training via JCET, logistical muscle from Niger Air Base 201 (Agadez), and direct advising that saw incidents like the 2017 Tongo Tongo ambush, have harmed the region. These operations are often met with mistrust and hostility by the local populace, as it is viewed by some as reminiscent of colonial domination, and they frequently result in civilian casualties, instantly alienating local communities whose intelligence cooperation is critical.

Aggressive counter-insurgency tactics have fuelled pervasive human rights abuses, with security forces in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger linked to over 600 unlawful killings since 2019. This predatory behaviour erodes state legitimacy, pushing marginalised populations toward extremist recruitment. Furthermore, massive defence aid through programs like the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP) frequently lacks oversight. This influx of capital has inadvertently empowered systemic corruption within the military, undermining the very units meant to provide security and creating a vacuum that jihadist groups continue to exploit with devastating efficiency.

These repeated constitutional ruptures have not only weakened the states internally but have also caused a diplomatic rift, culminating in the three junta-led countries leaving the regional bloc ECOWAS: a direct rejection of the sanctions and threats of military intervention aimed at forcing a return to civilian rule. This deepening division is a geopolitical setback that threatens to further isolate the populations most affected by the world’s fastest-growing terrorism threat.

Crime and Terrorism

The Sahel’s vast, porous borders facilitate a prosperous criminal economy driven by the trafficking of arms, women, children, and drugs. The region, particularly Mali, has become a crossroads for drug traffickers moving cocaine through the Trans-Saharan corridor toward Europe. This high-value trade has seen a dramatic increase in interdiction: cocaine seizures in Sahel countries soared from an annual average of 13 kg between 2015 and 2020 to 1,466 kg in 2022 (UNODC).

Organised crime and terrorism are deeply linked, as violent extremist organisations (VEOs) profit by taxing convoys and protecting illicit traders. This violence has triggered a massive humanitarian disaster, displacing over 3.3 million people in the Central Sahel as of early 2024. Beyond displacement, the local economy is profoundly distorted. Traditional commerce and agriculture are failing, as persistent poverty and unemployment drive local youth toward well-funded trafficking or extremist groups for survival. This redirection of labour disrupts vital food production cycles and market activities, deepening regional vulnerabilities and dramatically accelerating a catastrophic cycle of food insecurity and instability.

Demographic Challenges

Underlying the region's multiplying tensions is a rapid demographic explosion acting as a critical accelerant to state instability. The G5 Sahel population, currently exceeding 80 million, is projected to reach 200 million by 2050, placing unsustainable pressure on inadequate public services. This boom has overwhelmed the state’s capacity to provide essential infrastructure: over 14,800 schools have closed, depriving three million children of education, while 900 shuttered health facilities have severed access to basic care for millions. The human cost is stark, with average life spans 20 years shorter than in Switzerland and maternal mortality rates 100-fold higher. Furthermore, violence against health workers (including 122 deaths in 2021) compounds this collapse. Ultimately, the systemic failure to meet these basic demographic needs fuels popular discontent and erodes the perception of state legitimacy.

Nevertheless, the most significant danger lies in youth marginalisation. With high birth rates and poor educational outcomes, governments are unable to create enough jobs, resulting in mass youth unemployment. This large pool of unemployed, disillusioned young men are the prime targets for recruitment by armed groups, who offer a sense of purpose and, crucially, a salary, directly converting a demographic asset into a security liability.

More generally, a larger population requires more resources, particularly land and water - a demand that coincides with environmental degradation caused by climate change. This convergence of high demand and low supply intensifies competition over scarce arable land, worsening disputes between sedentary farming communities and nomadic pastoralists.

The convergence of demographic and environmental crises is driving a tidal wave of unplanned migration to urban centres, creating sprawling, informal settlements. Lacking basic services, these peripheries become zones of acute vulnerability and extremist influence where state control is weakest. The humanitarian scale is staggering; in 2022, 33 million people required life-saving assistance, while over 32 million across the Sahel faced urgent food insecurity. Driven by conflict, hunger, and climate change, displacement figures exceeded 4.2 million by 2023, with 3.7 million people internally displaced. This mass flight has emptied entire communities, signalling a profound protection crisis. Ultimately, the emptying of the countryside and the overcrowding of neglected urban margins represent a total breakdown of regional survival and stability.

Repeated Failures

The statistics are undeniable: the current model to fight the crisis is profoundly failing the population it claims to protect. Regional stability is wholly contingent upon the protection and recovery of the people; success must, therefore, be measured by the security of the displaced, not by conventional military metrics.

Conventional metrics for counter-terrorism missions like France’s Operation Barkhane present a distorted picture of success. Although a surge in combat forces and Reaper drones achieved temporary tactical victories, the mission costing nearly €1 billion annually failed to catalyse strategic political progress. This security-first approach proved catastrophic; the Global Terrorism Index reveals the Sahel now accounts for 51% of worldwide terrorism deaths, up from just 1% seventeen years ago. Since 2019, fatalities have increased nearly tenfold. These figures demonstrate that military dominance alone cannot resolve deep-seated regional instability or prevent the Sahel from becoming a global epicentre for extremist violence. Genuine success requires shifting focus from tactical force to addressing the fundamental root causes of the conflict.

Steps Toward Progress

Sahelian civil society and international humanitarian policy bodies collectively critique the status quo of kinetic counter-terrorism, instead demanding a fundamental strategic shift centred on human security by proposing a comprehensive four-pillar approach focused on protection, governance, development, and coordination.

The first, absolute imperative is the prioritisation of protection and humanitarian access. This requires expanding peacekeeping to implement gender-sensitive security measures, training forces to proactively safeguard IDP camps from horrific risks. Parallel efforts must negotiate access to deliver urgent aid and psychosocial support, directly countering the despair that pushes the desperate into the embrace of criminal and extremist groups. Second, stability depends on restoring state legitimacy through service delivery. Extremist groups thrive in the deficit that allows them to position themselves as the only viable providers of order.

True security requires the state to act as a trusted provider, consolidating military gains by restoring civilian administration, policing, and essential services. This must be paired with aggressive anti-corruption initiatives to dismantle the illicit trafficking networks that fund extremist groups. Central to this strategy is the “Triple Nexus” approach, which integrates humanitarian, development, and peace efforts. Development must be conflict-sensitive, prioritising livelihood restoration for women and enhancing climate resilience to reduce resource competition. Finally, a strategic reorientation is vital: international resources must shift from large military deployments toward empowering local governance and regional coordination. Ultimately, lasting stability depends on placing the protection and recovery of vulnerable populations at the heart of every intervention as the definitive measure of success.